Prediction
Answer Options
Learn as you go
As of 12 October 2026, 20:30 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 7% chance and No at 93%.
YES if Japan's real GDP growth for July to September 2026 (the third quarter, seasonally adjusted, quarter-on-quarter change expressed as an annualised rate) comes in at -1.6% or higher but below -0.8%; otherwise NO. The figure used is the one-decimal value in the Japan Cabinet Office's first preliminary GDP estimate for that quarter, scheduled for release on 16 November 2026 (Tokyo local time), as shown in its summary table of quarterly real growth rates. A value lying exactly on the edge between two bands counts in the higher band. Only that first release counts; later revisions are ignored, and a change in the report's layout does not stop a published figure from counting. If no figure for July to September 2026 has appeared by the date the following quarter's estimate is due, the latest quarter with published data is used instead. The Cabinet Office release decides, and exactly one band is YES.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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