Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:31 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 2% chance and No at 98%.
YES applies when JPMorgan Chase suffers a qualifying failure after this question was created and no later than 31 December 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Apply the legal and regulatory framework governing the bank. Five routes qualify. First, the main banking regulator declares it insolvent or non-viable, or removes permission to operate, and that decision starts or directly causes liquidation, resolution, a wind-down or a transfer. Second, a court orders liquidation, a statutory resolution process begins, or the regulator orders a wind-down; tools may include a bridge bank, a bail-in or compulsory asset transfers. Third, state intervention extinguishes or subordinates the existing shareholders’ equity and hands practical control to public authorities or their appointed receiver, while operations continue only because of that intervention. Fourth, a public default on a payment obligation is acknowledged by the main regulator or resolution authority and directly triggers liquidation, resolution, loss of the banking licence or a mandatory transfer. Obligations include repo payments, margin on derivatives and delivery of physical commodities. Fifth, the main regulator or resolution authority directs a compulsory takeover, merger or transfer covering all assets and liabilities or substantially all of them, because of the bank’s financial condition or to avert failure. This last route requires neither a public declaration of insolvency nor an immediate destruction of shareholder equity. If a possible failure happened during the period and qualifying court or regulatory action has occurred but publication is incomplete, confirmation can be awaited through 30 April 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. NO applies if a qualifying failure is not confirmed by then, or none occurs. Official filings, statements and actions of the bank’s main regulator or resolution authority take priority; an agreed account from reputable reporting may also establish the result.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
