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As of 12 October 2026, 21:31 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 1% chance and No at 99%.
This prediction looks at the base rate set by Korea's central bank, the Bank of Korea, when its policy board meets in November 2026, scheduled for 26 November 2026 (Korea Standard Time, KST, UTC+9). The change is counted in basis points against the base rate in force just before that meeting. YES if the change decided there is a cut of 50 basis points or more; if the decision is any other change, NO. If the rate is ever set as a range with a lower and an upper limit, only the move in the upper limit counts. A move that is not a multiple of 25 basis points is rounded: anything smaller than 25 basis points counts as 25 in the same direction, and anything larger goes to the nearest multiple of 25, rounding away from zero when it sits exactly halfway (a 37.5 basis point move counts as 50). Any move of 50 basis points or more in one direction counts as a 50-or-more move in that direction. The Bank of Korea's own publications from that meeting decide, such as the board's statement or press release, and the prediction can be settled as soon as that publication with the decision is out.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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