Prediction
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As of 11 October 2026, 01:32 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 46% chance and No at 54%.
YES applies if a court convicts Daejon Labrayae Love on one or more fraud counts, or counts of conspiring to commit fraud, in his federal criminal case in the District of Oregon. There he is charged with wire fraud and conspiracy to commit wire fraud over allegedly posing as a San Francisco 49ers player to take money from more than two dozen women. The conviction must come by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET or, after a mistrial, by the close of a retrial that begins before that date. Any named form of fraud counts. He counts as convicted once the court accepts a guilty plea or a jury or judge returns a guilty verdict, even if sentencing or the formal entry of judgment comes later; a plea deal counts only if it leads to a conviction on at least one such count. NO applies if the case is dismissed, ends without any judgment by the court, or ends with not-guilty verdicts on all relevant counts (including a finding that he is not criminally responsible because of mental illness); if all relevant counts are dropped or changed so that none of them is a fraud or fraud-conspiracy count any more; or if there is no conviction by the deadline. Only the first judgment counts; appeals do not change the result. The official judgment of the court decides; reliable news coverage may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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