Prediction
Answer Options
As of 12 October 2026, 11:07 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 2% chance and No at 98%.
YES if Anthropic is the company in third place when the WebDev view of the Code Arena leaderboard on arena.ai (Overall, Labs filter) is checked at 12:00 PM ET on 30 November 2026; if any other company, listed or not, is third, NO. Models marked AutoEval at that check are ignored, whatever rank or score they show. Companies are ordered by the Lab Rank column. If that ranking is ambiguous or not shown, each company is placed by its best-ranked model in the Models view; models on the same rank are ordered by their position in the table, and any remaining tie is broken by the alphabetical order of the company names offered in this group of predictions (for example Google before SpaceXAI). If the leaderboard cannot be reached at the check time, the first check after it is back online decides; if it becomes permanently unavailable, NO. The arena.ai Code Arena WebDev leaderboard decides.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
