Prediction
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As of 12 October 2026, 09:20 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 15% chance and No at 85%.
YES if Tsao Erh-yuan wins the next term as magistrate of Lienchiang County through the Taiwanese local election planned for 28 November 2026; if anyone else wins, NO. A person put in office before polling day as a temporary, interim or placeholder officeholder does not count. If at 11:59 PM ET on 30 June 2027 there is still no known result, or nobody has been elected, NO. Agreement among reliable election reports settles this prediction; where the result is unclear, the official returns of the Taiwanese government's Central Election Commission decide instead.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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