Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:27 UTC, versus prices James Talarico (D) at a 65% chance and Ken Paxton (R) at 36%.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm US Senate election in Texas, including any run-offs. A candidate is considered to represent a party if they are that party's nominee. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee, such as Greens, Libertarians or independents, may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be covered by the "Democrat" or "Republican" options, regardless of any affiliation they may have with either party. The resolution sources are the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC. This market will resolve once all three call the race for the same candidate. If they have not all called the race for the same candidate, it will resolve on the official certification.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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