Prediction
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As of 12 October 2026, 11:06 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 5% chance and No at 95%.
YES if the Democratic nominee finishes first in the 2026 US House election in Missouri's 1st congressional district (MO-01), expected on 3 November 2026, and wins by under 35 points; if the Democrat wins by any other margin, or the Republican nominee or anyone else finishes first, NO. The margin is the absolute gap in percentage points between the first- and second-place candidates, each share being that candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes cast. A margin landing exactly on the edge between two bands counts in the higher band, so each band runs from its lower edge up to just below its upper edge. The Democrat means the Democratic nominee, including a replacement who takes over before election day; independent candidates never count as the Democrat. In a tie for first place, only the Democrat's lowest band (under 35 points) can be YES: that happens when the Democratic nominee ties with the Republican nominee and has the alphabetically earlier ballot surname, or ties with a candidate who is not a party nominee; every other tie is NO. The vote count decides once it is final; a recount started before then keeps the outcome open until the recount is complete and the vote is final. If no definitive result exists by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, NO. The official result of Missouri's state electoral authority is the main evidence, and broad agreement among reputable election reports may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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