Prediction
Answer Options
As of 12 October 2026, 09:20 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 86% chance and No at 14%.
YES if OpenAI owns the top-ranked eligible model on arena.ai's Image Edit Arena leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/image-edit, Overall view, filtered to Models) when it is checked on 31 October 2026 at 12:00 PM ET; otherwise NO. Models are ordered by the number in the Rank column. Models tagged AutoEval at that time are ignored even if they show a rank or score; models tagged Preliminary are included. If two or more models share a rank, the one listed higher on the page ranks ahead; if that still leaves a tie, the company whose name comes first alphabetically ranks ahead (for example, Google ahead of SpaceXAI). If the top-ranked eligible model belongs to any other company, the answer is NO. If the leaderboard cannot be reached at the check time, the result waits for the first check after it is back online; if it becomes permanently unavailable, the answer is NO. That leaderboard is the only deciding record.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
