Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:29 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Democratic win by 15% to 20% at a 34% chance, ahead of Democratic win by 10% to 15% at 23% and Democratic win by 20% to 25% at 13%.
The YES answer is the party-and-margin band that matches the certified result of the 2026 U.S. House election in Nevada's 4th congressional district (NV-04), expected to be held on 3 November 2026. The margin is the absolute gap, in percentage points, between the vote shares of the candidates who finish first and second; each share is that candidate's valid votes divided by the total of valid votes in the race. A margin that falls exactly on the line between two bands counts for the higher band. The Democratic nominee stands for the Democratic answers and the Republican nominee for the Republican answers; independent candidates stand for neither party, and if a party replaces its nominee before election day, the replacement nominee is used. If two or more candidates finish level in first place, the YES answer is the smallest-margin answer of one party (“Democratic win by 0% to 5%” for the Democrats, “Republican win by 0% to 5%” for the Republicans): if both nominees are in the tie, that party is the one whose nominee's ballot-listed surname comes first alphabetically; if only one nominee is in the tie, it is that nominee's party. Every answer shown is NO if a tie for first place involves neither nominee, if the race is won by someone who is neither the Democratic nor the Republican nominee, or if the result is not definitively known by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET; otherwise exactly one answer is YES. The official, certified vote count decides; if a recount begins before certification, settlement waits until the recount is complete and the result is certified. The certified result is the one published by the Nevada authority responsible for certifying the election; overwhelming agreement among reliable news reports may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
