Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:28 UTC, versus prices Democratic Party at a 7% chance and Republican Party at 91%.
YES goes to the listed party that gains control of the Texas Senate through the 2026 Texas general election; the other listed party is NO. Control: a party controls the chamber if it holds a majority of the Senate’s voting seats under the counting rules below. If no party has a majority, control goes to the party that holds exactly half the voting seats while also winning the office of Lieutenant Governor in this election. If that still leaves control unclear, the party of the first majority leader picked by the newly convened Senate decides. If the new Senate has picked no majority leader by 31 March 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, both listed parties are NO. Counting seats: include every regular and special Texas Senate election that decides who sits in the incoming Senate and that, as of 31 October 2026, is scheduled to be held in November 2026; runoffs of those contests decide their seats even if held after November 2026. A vacant seat with no such November 2026 election scheduled as of 31 October 2026 counts for the party of the last member who held it. A seat filled in this election counts for the party under which the winner was elected, even if that member-elect switches party or leaves before the chamber formally organises. A seat not up for election in 2026 counts for the party holding it on election day, even if its member later switches party or leaves. A member elected as an independent counts for a party only after formally caucusing with it or, for a newly elected member, announcing the intention to do so. If that is unclear on election day, settlement may wait until such an announcement or 4 January 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first; with no announcement by then, the member counts for no party. Official information from the relevant Texas election authorities and the Texas Senate decides, together with broad agreement among reliable news reports.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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