Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:30 UTC, versus prices Tom McClintock (R) at a 91% chance and Michael Masuda (D) at 7%.
The two answers stand for parties, not for particular people: 'Republican Party' covers the Republican candidate, currently Tom McClintock, and 'Democratic Party' covers the Democratic candidate, currently Michael Masuda. YES goes to the party whose candidate wins the US House seat for California's 5th congressional district (CA-05) in the 2026 midterm elections, held on 3 November 2026. An answer still counts if that party's candidate is replaced before the vote. The winner's party is the one listed with their name on the ballot, or another clearly identifiable party affiliation, judged at the moment every 2026 US House race has been conclusively called. A winner without a Democratic or Republican ballot listing counts for whichever of those two parties they most recently said they intend to caucus with at that moment. If the winner cannot be matched to either party this way, both answers are NO, so at most one answer can be YES. Broad agreement among reliable news reports decides who won; if that leaves doubt, the official US result reported by the Federal Election Commission (fec.gov) decides. Voting ends when polls close on 3 November 2026, local time in the district, and there is no other deadline: the prediction settles once the race has been conclusively called and the winner's party can be fixed as described here, even if that takes days or weeks. If a call is withdrawn or reversed, for example after a recount, the final call counts.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
