Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:27 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 9% chance and No at 91%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces, by 05:59 CET/CEST on January 1, 2027, that it will disarm in Lebanon. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only announcements backed by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, should the position be vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah, will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" means a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military capability in Lebanon, whether partially or completely. Announcements of partial disarmament, such as surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or in a particular region, will qualify provided they form part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal remarks, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, and any other statements that fall short of a formal policy announcement will not be considered. The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Hezbollah's leadership, though a broad consensus of credible reporting confirming that a policy of disarmament has been adopted will also qualify.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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