Will OpenAI claim it has reached AGI by 31 Dec?

As of 11 October 2026, 00:26 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 16% chance and No at 84%.

Category

tech

Closes

2026-12-31 00:00 UTC

Answers

2

Chances as of

2026-10-11 00:26 UTC

This market resolves YES if OpenAI, or an official representative of the company, announces by January 1, 2027, 05:59 CET that it has achieved artificial general intelligence, or AGI. Otherwise, it resolves NO. What counts: an official announcement from OpenAI or one of its official representatives stating that the company has created AGI. Resolution source: official information from OpenAI or its official representatives, with a consensus of credible reporting also usable.

Answer options

• Yes16%
• No84%

Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.

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