Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 21:00 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is The Netherlands at a 11% chance, ahead of New Zealand at 11% and Italy at 10%.
This resolves based on which listed countries officially recognize Palestine as a state by January 1, 2027, 5:59 AM CET. An announcement of intent is not enough for Yes - only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine counts. The primary source is official government information; a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by @Reuters
