Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:30 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 8% chance and No at 92%.
YES requires an OpenAI model to achieve HLE Accuracy of at least 70% by 31 December 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. A clearly equivalent exam-score field qualifies, but Calibration Error and unrelated metrics do not. The official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard is primary. If it is unavailable during the period, keep the prediction open for its return; only after the period, or once permanent unavailability is confirmed, may official results published elsewhere be used. If no official alternative exists, choose NO.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
