Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 12 October 2026, 13:01 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 38% chance and No at 62%.
YES if a Democrat finishes first with a lead of at least 35 but under 40 percentage points in the 2026 US House general election for Washington's 9th congressional district, held on 3 November 2026; otherwise NO. The lead is the gap in percentage points between the vote shares of the first- and second-placed candidates, each share being that candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes cast in the contest. Democrat and Republican mean any candidate of that party on the general election ballot, also when both finalists come from the same party. A lead sitting exactly on the line between two bands counts in the higher band. If two or more candidates share the most votes, only the tied Democrats and Republicans are considered and the one whose ballot surname comes first alphabetically is treated as the winner: a Democrat counts as a win by under 20 points, a Republican as a Republican win. If no tied candidate is a Democrat or Republican, or the winner belongs to neither party, the answer is NO. The certified official count decides; if a recount starts before certification, the prediction stays open until the recount is finished and the count is certified. If the outcome is still not definitively known by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the answer is NO. Certified results from the Washington Secretary of State decide; overwhelming agreement among reliable news reports may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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