Prediction
Answer Options
As of 12 October 2026, 21:31 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 5% chance and No at 95%.
YES if OpenAI holds third place on the WebDev leaderboard of arena.ai's Code Arena (overall view, filtered for Labs) when it is checked on 31 October 2026 at 12:00 PM ET; any other placing is NO. Companies are ordered by the Lab Rank column; models marked AutoEval at that moment are left out, even if they show a rank or score. If the Lab Rank order is ambiguous or unavailable, each company is placed by its best-ranked model in the Models view of that leaderboard; models with the same rank are ordered by which one appears higher on the leaderboard, and any tie left after that is broken alphabetically by company name (for example, Google would come before SpaceXAI). If the leaderboard cannot be reached at the check time, the first successful check after it is back online counts; if it is permanently unavailable, NO. That arena.ai leaderboard decides.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
