Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:28 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 32% chance and No at 68%.
YES applies if SpaceX successfully launches Starship from a Florida launch pad by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Any later explosion or other anomaly does not erase a completed launch, and a vehicle rename is irrelevant. SpaceX’s official video and launch information are primary, with secondary footage or reputable reporting as fallback. If no qualifying launch occurs by the cutoff, use NO.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
