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As of 12 October 2026, 21:36 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 4% chance and No at 96%.
YES if the 2026 US House election in Texas's 4th congressional district, expected on 3 November 2026, ends in a Republican win by under 5 percentage points; any other result gives NO. Calculate the margin as the absolute difference between the first- and second-place candidates' valid-vote shares, with each share equal to that candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes cast in the race. A value exactly on a band boundary belongs to the higher band. Democratic and Republican mean the nominees of those parties; independent candidates are neither. If a party changes its nominee before election day, the replacement fills that party's slot. For a first-place tie, select between Democratic and Republican nominees by alphabetical ballot surname; a party nominee is preferred to any other tied candidate. If only other candidates tie for first, NO. The selected nominee receives the lowest margin band, from 0 to under 5 percentage points. If the Republican nominee is selected, YES; if the Democratic nominee or only other candidates are selected, NO. The official final count from the responsible Texas election authority decides. A recount begun before certification keeps the result open until completed and the count is final. If no definitive result exists by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, NO. If official certification is unavailable, use overwhelming agreement among credible election reports as the fallback.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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