Who wins Oregon's 1st district, and by how much?

As of 11 October 2026, 00:27 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Democrat 45-50% at a 28% chance, ahead of Democrat 40-45% at 24% and Democrat 50-55% at 24%.

Category

politics

Closes

2026-11-04 04:59 UTC

Answers

10

Chances as of

2026-10-11 00:27 UTC

This prediction is about the regular 2026 general election for the U.S. House seat of Oregon's 1st congressional district (OR-01), expected on 3 November 2026. To get the margin, express the valid votes of each of the two leading finishers as a share of all valid votes cast in that contest, then subtract the smaller share from the larger; that gap in percentage points picks the band. Democratic bands stand for the candidate nominated by the Democratic Party and Republican bands for the candidate nominated by the Republican Party; an independent or minor-party candidate never counts for either party. If a party replaces its nominee before election day, the new nominee counts. A band is YES when the first-place finisher is the nominee of that band's party and the margin falls within the band's range. A label such as “Democrat 20-30%” covers a margin of at least 20 and under 30 points, and “Democrat 60%+” covers 60 points or more. A margin landing exactly on the line between two bands goes to the higher band. “Republican wins” is YES when the Republican nominee finishes first, whatever the margin. If the top vote total is shared and at least one party nominee is among those tied, the tied party nominee whose surname, as printed on the ballot, comes first in the alphabet gets the lowest band of their party (“Democrat 0-20%” for the Democrat, “Republican wins” for the Republican); the ballot surname is used even though the bands name only a party. Every band is NO if a candidate who is not the Democratic or Republican nominee finishes first alone, if the only candidates tied for first are such candidates, or if no definitive result exists by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. At most one band can be YES; all the others are NO. Settlement uses the official vote count once it has become official; if a recount begins before that, settlement waits until the recount is finished and its count is official. The official results published by the Oregon state authority that certifies this election decide; overwhelming agreement among reputable news outlets may also be used.