Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 21:31 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 18% chance and No at 82%.
This market resolves to “Yes” if the European Union’s long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded at any point by Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch by January 1, 2027 at 05:59 CET. Otherwise, it resolves to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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