Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:29 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 8% chance and No at 92%.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit for December 2026 than it reported for September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For resolution, the relevant figure will be the value in the column labeled “Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount” in the table “Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the Monthly Treasury Statement, available here: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government. If the December 2026 MTS has not been published by March 1, 2027, 05:59 CET, another credible source will be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
