Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:32 UTC, versus prices Christy Peterson (R) at a 2% chance and Melat Kiros (D) at 98%.
YES goes to the answer whose party takes the House seat for Colorado's 1st congressional district (CO-01) at the US midterm election held on 3 November 2026. Each answer stands for a party, not for a person: 'Republican Party' covers the Republican candidate, listed as Christy Peterson, and 'Democratic Party' covers the Democratic candidate, listed as Melat Kiros; each answer still counts for its party if that party's nominee changes. The winner's party is their ballot-listed or other clear affiliation at the moment all 2026 House races have been conclusively called. A winner who is listed as neither Democrat nor Republican counts for the party they most recently said they would caucus with at that moment; if this still points to neither party, both answers are NO. At most one answer can be YES. Broad agreement among reliable election reporting decides the result; if it is ambiguous, only the official results of the U.S. Federal Election Commission (fec.gov) count. There is no deadline for the result: the prediction is settled once the winner and their party are clear under these rules, however long that takes. All dates here refer to US Eastern Time (ET).
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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