Prediction
Answer Options
As of 12 September 2026, 02:53 UTC, versus prices September 30, 2026 at a >99% chance and December 31, 2026 at >99%.
This market resolves YES if Moonshot AI’s next Kimi K model is made available to the general public by the specified date at 05:59 CET/CEST the following day. Otherwise, it resolves NO. What counts as the next Kimi K model: any model released after market creation that is explicitly named as part of the Kimi K family, such as Kimi K2.8 Code, Kimi K3.1, or Kimi K4. Any new model within the Kimi K family qualifies. What does NOT count: products labelled Kimi-VL or similar versions outside the Kimi K model family. What counts as publicly available: the model must be launched and accessible to the general public, including through an open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. Closed betas and private-access releases do not qualify. The release must either be clearly announced by Moonshot AI as generally accessible, or be publicly accessible and explicitly labelled on the company’s official website. What does NOT count: labelling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not match a model actually accessible to the general public. Resolution source: official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
