Prediction
Answer Options
As of 12 October 2026, 20:29 UTC, versus prices Yes at a <1% chance and No at >99%.
YES if OpenAI finishes second at the 31 October 2026 check, 12:00 PM ET, using arena.ai's Overall Text Arena with style control on; any other placing is NO. Use the Leaderboard's Labs filter and Lab Rank column. Ignore any model labelled AutoEval at the check, even if it has a score or rank. If Lab Rank is unavailable or ambiguous, compare each relevant company's best-ranked entry in Models view. For equal model ranks, compare Arena scores using unrounded underlying values; a remaining tie is broken alphabetically by company name (for example, Google would come before SpaceXAI). If the board is down, leave the prediction open and use the first check after it returns. If the board is permanently lost, NO. The arena.ai board alone supplies the result.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
