Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:30 UTC, versus prices Josh Green (D) at a 98% chance and Gary Cordery (R) at 1%.
YES goes to the answer of the candidate who wins the election for Governor of Hawaii held on 3 November 2026; every other answer is NO. Josh Green (D) stands for the Democratic Party's nominee and Gary Cordery (R) for the Republican Party's nominee; if either of them is replaced as the party's nominee before election day, that answer follows the replacement. A candidate counts for a party only as its official nominee, and someone running as an independent never counts for the Democratic or Republican answer, whatever their links to that party. Candidates other than the two major-party nominees (for example Green Party, Libertarian or independent candidates) may be added as answers later. The result is settled once the Associated Press, NBC and Fox News have all called the contest for one and the same person; if the three have not all done so, Hawaii's official certified result decides. There is no fixed cutoff time: the result waits for those calls or the certification after voting ends on 3 November 2026 (local time). If the winner is not among the listed answers, every listed answer is NO; at most one answer is YES.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
