Prediction
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As of 12 October 2026, 11:09 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 2% chance and No at 98%.
This prediction counts the US House seats from Minnesota won by the Democratic Party in the 2026 midterm elections on 3 November 2026. Candidates of Minnesota's Democratic-Farmer-Labor (DFL) Party, the state branch of the Democratic Party, count as Democrats. YES if Democrats win fewer than 3 of Minnesota's House seats; any other total is NO. Every Minnesota House race in those midterms that elects a voting member of the 120th Congress counts; a special election that only fills the rest of an unexpired term does not, even if it is held on the same day. Where a qualifying race goes to a runoff, the runoff decides that seat. Each seat stays with the party under which its winner was elected, even if the member-elect later switches party or gives up the seat after election day. A winner elected as an independent counts for a party if, before election day, they formally caucus with it or announce that they will. If that is still unclear on election day, the prediction waits for such an announcement or until 4 January 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first; with no announcement by then, that member counts for no party. Official information from Minnesota's election authorities and the US Congress decides, together with reliable news coverage.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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