Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 30 October 2026, 09:26 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 3% chance and No at 97%.
Scope: the 2026 OR-06 US House election, expected on 3 Nov 2026. YES if the Republican Party nominee is the winner; an independent is not the Republican option. If a party replaces its nominee before election day, use the replacement. Determine the winner from the certified official vote count. If the top vote is tied, use the listed-candidate last name alphabetically when both tied candidates are listed; if only one is listed, use that listed candidate; if all tied leaders are unlisted, use Other. A margin exactly on a bracket boundary uses the higher bracket. A recount begun before certification keeps this open until certification. If no definitive result exists by 23:59 ET on 30 Jun 2027, settle Other. The state electoral authority's certified results decide; overwhelming consistent reporting may serve as fallback.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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