Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:28 UTC, versus prices Andrew Garbarino (R) at a 86% chance and Patrick Halpin (D) at 14%.
YES belongs to the listed party whose candidate wins the NY-02 congressional seat in the US House at the 2026 midterm election on 3 November 2026. Determine party status from the candidate's ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation when all 2026 House races are conclusively called; a candidate without a Democrat or Republican ballot affiliation is assigned according to the party they most recently said they would caucus with. Resolve from the election result as shown by a broad agreement among reliable reports. If that is ambiguous, use the US government's official result from the Federal Election Commission. No poll, projection, or endorsement is a result. Any time reference uses Eastern Time (ET).
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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