How many 7.0+ quakes will strike worldwide by 31 Dec?

As of 11 October 2026, 01:30 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is 14–16 at a 59% chance, ahead of 17–19 at 21% and 11–13 at 21%.

Category

weather

Closes

2026-12-31 23:59 UTC

Answers

6

Chances as of

2026-10-11 01:30 UTC

This market resolves to the range matching the number of earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or greater recorded worldwide during 2026, from January 1, 2026, 6:00 AM CET through January 1, 2027, 5:59 AM CET. The “20+” option covers twenty or more qualifying earthquakes.

Answer options

• 5–7<1%
• 8–10<1%
• 11–1321%
• 14–1659%
• 17–1921%
• 20+1%

Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.

Reported by @Reuters