Prediction
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As of 11 October 2026, 00:29 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 37% chance and No at 63%.
YES requires a qualifying direct or brokered diplomatic encounter involving the North Korean and South Korean governments by 31 December 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Officials must deliberately meet to negotiate or conduct diplomacy, acting with authority from their respective governments. An agreement, joint statement or later engagement is not required. Otherwise the answer is NO. Direct talks require face-to-face interaction; interpreters are allowed. Mediated talks qualify only when both sides authorise and know about the intermediaries, both delegations are physically in the same city, venue or facility for one organised round of talks, and the intermediary relays their communications on one calendar day in the local time of the meeting location. Attendance at regular international organisations, treaty bodies or recurring multilateral conferences does not itself count. A separately arranged qualifying meeting on their sidelines does count. Chance meetings, greeting-only exchanges, courtesy visits limited to pleasantries and photo opportunities are excluded. So are remote or telephone discussions, discussions without both sides physically co-located that day, and talks by people without diplomatic authority. Use official information from the two governments together with agreement among reliable news reports to establish that these conditions were met.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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