Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 21:40 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 11% chance and No at 89%.
Resolves YES if, by 11:59 PM ET on 31 October 2026 (03:59 UTC on 1 November 2026), Saudi Arabia and the Houthis each announce that they accept one and the same ceasefire deal. Otherwise NO. A qualifying deal is any arrangement the two sides agree between them under which they stop engaging each other militarily in a direct way; a wider peace accord, a normalisation pact, a political framework, a truce or a humanitarian pause also counts, provided it carries that mutually agreed halt to direct fighting and names the date it takes effect. Pledges of future talks or de-escalation steps without an explicit commitment, carrying a date, to stop fighting do not count, and neither does an informal understanding, a back-channel contact, a calming of the situation with no announced deal, nor a pause one side declares on its own. Only an arrangement that halts the conflict generally qualifies; one confined to particular parts of the conflict, for example to certain categories of target or certain places, does not. Both sides have to declare publicly that they accept one and the same diplomatic arrangement. A single joint statement counts, and so do separate statements which, taken as a pair, directly show that both accepted the identical deal; separate announcements of each side's own policy do not count unless they are put forward as part of a diplomatic arrangement. Every such statement must be a plain declaration that unmistakably conveys acceptance. Remarks about talks under way or about a deal still to come, and words that merely allude to or welcome a deal without confirming acceptance of it, are not enough. A statement need not name the deal or use any particular wording, as long as it clearly conveys acceptance. The statements themselves are chiefly what settles the question. If both sides make statements that might qualify but it stays unclear whether they add up to a ceasefire between them, the question remains open until either further statements from the two sides, or broad agreement among reliable reports, confirm it definitively, or until seven calendar days, counted in ET, have gone by since the day on which the later of the two sides first made such a statement. If nothing definitive has emerged by the end of that seventh day, the statements are judged on the whole body of information then available from the sources named here. A single remark, denial or piece of evidence does not decide the matter where the overall picture contradicts it. Decided by official information from the Saudi government and the Houthi leadership (official source); broad agreement among reliable reports may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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