Prediction
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As of 11 October 2026, 01:29 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 2% chance and No at 98%.
YES applies if the Clay Mathematics Institute awards the Riemann Hypothesis Millennium Prize or officially declares the problem solved, through its website or another official communication, by 31 December 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The declaration can accept a proof, counterexample, disproof or another form of solution. A prize is sufficient but not necessary. AI participation and acceptance or refusal of the prize do not affect the outcome. A published proof alone is insufficient, even if mathematicians accept it. CMI's official information is primary; agreement among reliable reports may confirm the declaration or award. With neither by the cutoff, answer NO.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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