Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:29 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Republican 3-6% at a 24% chance, ahead of Republican 6-9% at 21% and Republican 21%+ at 18%.
This prediction is about the first round of the general election for the U.S. House of Representatives seat of Georgia's 1st congressional district (GA-01), held on 3 November 2026 (all dates in ET); any later runoff is ignored. The winning margin is the absolute gap, in percentage points, between the vote shares of the candidates who finish first and second in that round; each share is the candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes cast in the race, so blank and invalid ballots do not count. The Republican options stand for the Republican Party's nominee and the Democrat options for the Democratic Party's nominee; an independent represents neither party, and if a party replaces its named nominee before election day, the replacement is used. A range is YES when that party's nominee finishes first and the margin falls inside it; a margin exactly on the border between two ranges goes to the higher range. If the most votes are tied: between the two nominees, the lowest range of the nominee whose ballot surname comes first alphabetically is YES (Republican 0-3% or Democrat 0-3%); between one nominee and any other candidate, that nominee's lowest range is YES; between candidates who are neither nominee, every option is NO. If anyone other than the two nominees finishes first, every option is NO. The official vote count decides once it has been made official; if a recount starts before then, the prediction stays open until the recount is finished and the result is official. If the result is not definitively known by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, every option is NO. Official results published by the Georgia election authority responsible for certifying the result decide; overwhelming agreement among reliable news reports may also be used. At most one option can be YES.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
