Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:29 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 4% chance and No at 96%.
YES applies if Ukraine officially records passage of a nationwide referendum about peace in the Russia-Ukraine war or a peace deal by 31 December 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Passage requires more than half of valid nationwide votes to support the proposal; a local or non-national consultation does not qualify. Later legal or political challenges do not undo a qualifying majority. Official Ukrainian government information leads; agreement among dependable reports may also be used. Without an officially passed qualifying referendum by the cutoff, the answer is NO.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
