Prediction
Answer Options
As of 12 October 2026, 13:01 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 1% chance and No at 99%.
YES if Microsoft is the company ranked second in the Labs table of the arena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on 30 November 2026, with style control off (Adjustments: None). A different company in second place makes Microsoft NO. Exclude every model marked AutoEval at that check, even if it displays a rank or score. Rank companies primarily by the Lab Rank column. If Lab Rank is unclear or unavailable, rank each company by its best-ranked model in the Models view using the same Math, Labs, and style settings. For models tied on rank, use Arena score, including unrounded values shown below the table. If scores still tie, order companies alphabetically by company name, with Google before SpaceXAI. If the leaderboard is unavailable at the check, keep the prediction open until the first successful check after it returns; if it becomes permanently unavailable, Microsoft is NO. The arena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard with these settings is the deciding record.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
