Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:26 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 7% chance and No at 93%.
This market resolves Yes if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by January 1, 2027, 5:59 AM CET. Otherwise, it resolves No. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation or removal before the end date immediately resolves this Yes, regardless of when the announced resignation or removal takes effect. Resolution is based on the government of Germany; a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by @FT
