Prediction
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As of 12 October 2026, 20:28 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 56% chance and No at 44%.
This prediction looks at the Selic rate target set by the Central Bank of Brazil (Banco Central do Brasil) at its December 2026 Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) meeting, scheduled for 8 and 9 December 2026 with the decision due on 9 December 2026. The change is counted in basis points against the level in force just before that meeting. YES if the change decided there is a cut of exactly 25 basis points; if the decision is any other change, NO. If the rate is ever set as a range with a lower and an upper limit, only the move in the upper limit counts. A move that is not a multiple of 25 basis points is rounded: anything smaller than 25 basis points counts as 25 in the same direction, and anything larger goes to the nearest multiple of 25, rounding away from zero when it sits exactly halfway (a 37.5 basis point move counts as 50). Any move of 50 basis points or more in one direction counts as a 50-or-more move in that direction. If the meeting is pushed back but its decision still comes out before the next scheduled Copom meeting (date and start time as on the central bank's official Copom calendar) starts, that later decision is used. If the meeting is called off, or no decision is out before the next scheduled Copom meeting (date and start time as on the central bank's official Copom calendar) starts, the outcome counts as no change. Emergency or unscheduled moves made outside this meeting are ignored. The Central Bank of Brazil's own publications decide, including the Copom statement and its official calendar, and the prediction can be settled as soon as the statement or release with the decision is out. Dates and times are read in Brasília time (UTC-3).
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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