Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 12 October 2026, 21:35 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 18% chance and No at 82%.
YES applies when fewer than 1,200,000 valid votes are certified in Iowa’s 2026 general election for U.S. Senate, held on 3 November 2026; primary-election votes are excluded. Votes certified for candidates and for non-candidate ballot choices count. Blank and invalid ballots do not count. If a ranked-choice or preferential count is used, use the first-round total. A total exactly at 1,200,000 is not fewer than the threshold, so YES does not apply. If the certified result is not definitively available by 31 March 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, YES applies to this under-1,200,000 outcome and NO applies otherwise. The certified result published by Iowa’s state election authority decides; overwhelming agreement among reputable election reports may be used if the official result is unavailable.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
