Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 12 October 2026, 09:20 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 4% chance and No at 96%.
YES if Markus Söder becomes Germany's next Chancellor after Friedrich Merz, which means Markus Söder is elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and then appointed by the Federal President by 31 December 2027 at 11:59 PM ET; if someone else becomes the next Chancellor, or nobody other than Merz takes office that way by then, NO. Anyone serving only as acting or caretaker Chancellor does not count. If Merz himself is the next person the Bundestag elects Chancellor before that deadline, NO. Official information from the German Federal Government and the Bundestag decides; reliable news coverage may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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