Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:27 UTC, versus prices Republican Party at a 1% chance and Democratic Party at 97%.
YES for a party means its candidate wins the NY-05 U.S. House seat in the 3 November 2026 midterm election. Determine the candidate's party from the ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation when the deciding reports have conclusively called all 2026 House races. If a candidate has neither a Democratic nor Republican ballot affiliation, use whichever of those parties the candidate most recently said they would caucus with at that time. Use a consistent body of reputable election reporting; if the result is ambiguous, defer to the official U.S. government result, specifically the Federal Election Commission. No election-night cutoff in ET is imposed. The matching party answer is YES; any party that does not match is NO.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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