Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 12 October 2026, 11:08 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 14% chance and No at 86%.
This prediction is about the upper end of the US Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate after the Federal Open Market Committee meeting in December 2027, currently planned for 7 and 8 December 2027. It can be settled as soon as the statement for that meeting announces the decision on the range. If no December decision on the range has been published by 11:59 PM ET on 31 December 2027, the upper end in force at that moment is used. The upper end is rounded to the nearest 0.25 percentage point (25 basis points); a value exactly halfway between two steps is rounded away from zero, so 2.875% counts as 3.0%. YES if the rounded upper end is exactly 4.0%. NO if it is any other value. Official Federal Reserve information, such as its monetary policy meeting statements, is the main source.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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