Prediction
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As of 30 October 2026, 11:11 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 12% chance and No at 88%.
This prediction covers the contests for Tennessee's US House seats at the 2026 midterm elections, the regular races that pick voting members for the 120th Congress. YES if the Democrats take exactly 1 of those seats; any other total is NO. Special elections held only to complete an unexpired term do not count, whether or not they coincide with the midterm. Where a counted race goes to a runoff, the runoff decides which party gets that seat. Each seat goes to the party the winner stood for when elected and stays with it even if the member-elect switches party or gives up the seat after election day. A member elected as an independent who formally joins a party's caucus, or announces an intention to do so, before election day counts for that party. If such a member's caucus choice is still unknown on election day, the prediction may stay open until that member announces it or until 23:59 ET on 4 Jan 2027, whichever is earlier. Without an announcement by then, the member counts for no party. The outcome is taken from the announcements of Tennessee's state election authorities and the US Congress, plus consistent reports from reputable news outlets.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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