Prediction
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As of 12 October 2026, 20:31 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 95% chance and No at 5%.
YES if the Republican nominee, Jim Risch, wins Idaho's 2026 election for the U.S. Senate, held on 3 November 2026 (Idaho local time), including any runoff that decides the seat; otherwise NO. If the Republican nominee is replaced before election day, the replacement nominee counts instead. An independent candidate never counts as the Republican nominee, whatever their ties to the party. If anyone else wins (for example the Democratic nominee, independent Todd Achilles, a Libertarian, a Constitution Party candidate or another independent), the answer is NO. The result is settled once AP, Fox News and NBC all project the same winner; if that never happens, Idaho's official certified result decides. There is no other fixed cut-off date.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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