Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 12 October 2026, 09:17 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 81% chance and No at 19%.
YES if Imelda Castro Castro is elected governor of the Mexican state of Sinaloa in the 2027 vote, currently set for 6 June 2027. An interim or caretaker governor does not count as the winner. If another candidate wins, NO. If no winner is definitively known by 31 December 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, NO. Broad agreement among reliable election reports decides; if those reports leave the outcome ambiguous, official results from Sinaloa and Mexican government bodies, such as the Electoral Institute of Sinaloa and Mexico's National Electoral Institute (INE), decide. The answer follows the election result; later changes in who holds the office do not alter it.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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