Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:29 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is 1510+ at a 29% chance, ahead of 1480+ at 28% and 1495+ at 28%.
This market resolves to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena.AI leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) has at least the specified score at 18:00 CET/CEST on the calendar day following the date it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise it resolves to "No". Any Gemini model newly added to the leaderboard and labelled as "Pro" may qualify, for example gemini-2.5-pro, gemini-3-pro or gemini-3.1-pro-preview. Gemini models labelled only as Flash, Flash-Lite or another non-Pro variant do not qualify. Resolution uses the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control switched off. The market resolves solely on the figure shown in that Score column, regardless of any more granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (Eastern Time), the highest-scoring model is used. Models added on the calendar day after the initial qualifying model's first appearance are not considered. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI leaderboard. Whether it was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta or otherwise available before appearing there is irrelevant. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM leaderboard at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If that source is unavailable at the time of the check, the market resolves on the first subsequent occasion the score becomes available. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears, or if no qualifying model has been released by 05:59 CET/CEST on January 1, 2027, this market resolves to "No".
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
