Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:28 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Kotek 6-9% at a 18% chance, ahead of Kotek 9-12% at 17% and Kotek 3-6% at 13%.
This prediction covers the 2026 election for Governor of Oregon, expected on 3 November 2026. The winning margin is the gap in percentage points between the vote shares of the candidates who finish first and second, where each share is that candidate's valid votes divided by the total of valid votes in the race. The percentages in the answers are percentage points of that margin. The Drazan answers stand for the Republican Party's nominee (Christine Drazan) and the Kotek answers for the Democratic Party's nominee (Governor Tina Kotek); independent and minor-party candidates count for neither. If a party replaces its nominee before election day, the replacement takes over that party's answers. A Drazan bracket is YES only if the Republican nominee finishes first and the margin lies inside that bracket; a Kotek bracket is YES only if the Democratic nominee finishes first and the margin lies inside it. A margin exactly on the line between two brackets counts in the higher one. If anyone other than these two nominees finishes first, every listed answer is NO. At most one listed answer can be YES. If there is a tie for first place: when the two nominees are level, YES goes to the lowest bracket (0 to 3 points) of the nominee whose surname on the ballot comes first alphabetically (with Drazan and Kotek as the nominees, that is "Drazan 0-3%"); when one nominee is level with any other candidate, YES goes to that nominee's lowest bracket; when only other candidates are level, every listed answer is NO. Settlement uses the vote count once it has been made official; if a recount starts before that point, settlement waits until the recount is complete and the result is official. If the result is still not definitively known by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, every listed answer is NO. Official results published by the Oregon state authority that certifies this election decide; an overwhelming agreement among reliable news reports may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
