Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:29 UTC, versus prices September 30 at a <1% chance and December 31 at 14%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory within Rodynske, Donetsk Oblast (48.351541° N, 37.210747° E) between the creation of this market and the specified date (ET), which ends at 05:59 CET/CEST on the following day. Territory will be considered captured if any part of it is shaded under one of the layers specified below on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For any change on the ISW map to qualify, the shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, the shading must persist until the next finalised ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading reflecting either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours" or "Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives" will qualify. Once a qualifying condition has been met, any subsequent loss of control will not be taken into account. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as the result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether the area is shaded blue on the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement granting Ukraine de jure control will not qualify; actual control must be established. The primary resolution source will be the ISW Ukraine map. Should it become unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If both the ISW map and DeepStateMap become permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Any temporary glitches or errors on the map will not be taken into account.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
