Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:31 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 69% chance and No at 31%.
Resolves YES if the race of a Formula 1 Grand Prix that counts as a round of the 2026 F1 world championship officially starts inside the Abu Dhabi emirate of the United Arab Emirates by 31 March 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise NO. The Abu Dhabi Grand Prix is currently planned for 6 December 2026 at Yas Marina Circuit. A postponement, a new date or a different start time does not matter, as long as the race gets under way inside the emirate by the deadline, and a switch to another circuit inside the emirate still counts. Any 2026 championship round held there counts, whatever the event is officially called. The race counts as held once it has officially started, even if it does not run its full scheduled distance or full points are not awarded. Practice, qualifying and sprint sessions do not count. A cancellation, or a move to a site outside the emirate, including anywhere else in the UAE, means NO. If no race that meets these conditions has started inside the emirate by 31 March 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the answer is NO, whether or not the 2026 championship has been completed. Decided primarily by official announcements from Formula 1 and the FIA; broad agreement among reliable reports may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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